Scenarios — the win number and what moves it
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The win number
—
The benchmark
—
The grid — opponent × effort
Move the levers
Projected turnout
—
Baseline two-party D
—
Effort modifier
—
Opponent
Reset
The simple frame
Scenario
D share
D votes
Margin
Crossover
Election night — precinct benchmarks
Precinct
Turf
2022 Gov D, all votes
2022 ED D–R
2022 ED D
Megan
Talley
Reported D
Δ vs 2022 ED
Clear
What the number is not
← HQ