Live results — 3 November
Polls close 19:00 CT. Waiting for the first returns. This
card reads
live_hd81.json beside this page every 20 seconds; until a poller
publishes that file on election night it stays on this line.The matchup — certified
61.9% · 59.0%
Megan Hornbeek Allen 1,315 of 2,123 in the
16 June Democratic primary (Lankford 808).
Troy Talley 2,631 of 4,461 in the 25 August
Republican runoff (Rains 1,830); he led the June three-way with
47.5% of 4,029. The Republican primary drew
1.9× the Democratic one — that is the registration gap, not the
general-election electorate.
The benchmark — 2022 Governor
51.43% two-party D
Hofmeister carried HD81, 6,395–6,040, while losing
the state 43.0–57.0. The district ran 8.5
points to the left of Oklahoma and 5.4 points to the right of
Oklahoma County. Nelson (Superintendent) did one better at 51.6%. Those two
are the ceiling; the generic down-ballot floor was 32.4%.
The win number
6,751
of a 13,500-vote projection (2022 turnout was
12,729; 2024 was 17,174). One point of two-party share is
135 votes. Against Talley the model says: ceiling
51.4% (+378), base 48.9%
(−296), floor 43.4% (−1,782). Only the
full program wins, and it wins by 378 votes.
The trend
R+41 → R+15
Presidential margin, 2012 to 2024: 2012 R+41 → 2016 R+30 → 2020 R+20 → 2024 R+15. A
26-point move toward Democrats in twelve years, and the
seat itself went 42.0% (2018, old lines) → 49.3% (2020) →
carried at the top of the ticket in 2022. The 2024 presidential vote was
42.3% D — the trend is real, the seat is still a Republican seat on paper.
Registration
Registered26,101 · 21,745 active
Republican51.5% (13,437)
Democrat25.0% (6,537)
Independent22.4% (5,835)
Libertarian1.1% (292)
Registration is R+26. Democrats were
27% of the 2022 electorate here and Hofmeister took 51.43% —
a crossover of about 24 points, roughly a third of the
Republican-and-independent vote. The crossover is the whole race; the Democratic base
cannot carry it alone.
The turf — 13 precincts
550346 62.3550345 61.9550352 57.9550349 56.7550356 54.3550361 51.9550351 50.0550354 52.6550353 51.9550355 51.3550372 47.4550360 46.9550357 46.6
7 HOLD precincts Hofmeister won on election day
(50–62% two-party), 3 PERSUADE-top toss-ups at 51–53%,
and 3 PERSUADE lean-R precincts (550357, 550360, 550372) where she took
47% and the crossover is live. The three lean-R precincts hold 7,421 active
voters — 34% of the district. Lose them by ten and no HOLD margin
covers it.
Calendar — State Election Board
Fri 9 Octvoter registration deadline
Mon 19 Oct 17:00absentee ballot request deadline
Wed–Fri 28–30 Octin-person absentee voting, 08:00–18:00
Sat 31 Octin-person absentee voting, 08:00–14:00
Tue 3 Novelection day — polls 07:00–19:00
From the SBE 2026 Voter Information Calendar (Rev. 7/1/2025).
Reading the June and August returns
In HD81's precincts the Republican Governor primary
went Drummond 28.9 · Mazzei 24.2 · Keating
22.5 on election day, and the 25 August runoff went
Drummond 53.1% here while Mazzei won the state. The
Democratic primary went Munson 85.0%. Public certified results,
election-day rows only — mail and early votes sit in the county bucket and are not in
these figures. Read it as a description of the Republican electorate you are asking to
cross over: it preferred the establishment candidate in both rounds, and he carried
10 of 13 precincts here in August.
Central absentee — read before quoting a precinct number
SBE precinct rows carry election-day votes
only. Mail and in-person early votes sit in the county's central absentee bucket
(559999). For the HD81 races that bucket is district-only: June D
178 Megan / 127 Lankford; August R
237 Talley / 239 Rains. For statewide races it is
county-wide and is excluded everywhere on this site. The 2022 benchmark
(51.43%) is calibrated so the 13 precincts sum to the certified district total
— use it, not the raw election-day rows, as the yardstick.
Field capacity
A · D primary universe2,650 active, median age 58
B · persuasion universe11,172 active R+I in PERSUADE turf, median age 54
Doors reachable1,748 (A) · 7,164 (B)
Active independents4,547 · median age 41 · voted 37.4% in 2022, 62.9% in 2024
Age 18–293,800 registered
Universe B is 4.2× universe A. The program is a
persuasion program with a GOTV tail, not the reverse. 1,224 independents have
voted in a Democratic primary before; the 2026 primary was closed to them.
Money
In-district donor base699 people, $290,806 given (all filers)
Of whom Democrats392 · Republicans 101 · independents 84
Megan, Q1 2026$3,927 raised · $3,196 on hand
The donor base is every itemized ($50+) giver to a Democrat who lives in
the district, 2022–2026, from 107 Oklahoma Ethics filings plus FEC
records. It is a prospect list, not money raised, and most of the dollars are recurring
ActBlue gifts — lead with the count. Refresh Megan's own line from the Guardian before
quoting it.
The 2022 slate ladder — what a Democrat gets here by race
| Race | Two-party D | Carried | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Superintendent (Nelson v Walters) | 51.6% | D | bluest race — carried HD81 — the Walters revolt |
| Governor (Hofmeister v Stitt) | 51.4% | D | carried HD81 while losing the state by 14 |
| US Senate special (K. Horn v Mullin) | 44.8% | R | credible statewide D |
| US Senate (M. Horn v Lankford) | 39.3% | R | |
| Corporation Commissioner | 37.7% | R | |
| State Treasurer | 37.3% | R | |
| Lt. Governor | 36.9% | R | |
| Labor Commissioner | 32.4% | R | generic down-ballot D floor |
Composite of the ladder: 40.4%.
The spread between the top and the bottom rung is 19.2 points in one
election, on one ballot, in one district. That spread is the crossover vote, and it
went to the two Democrats who ran as the sane choice against a named opponent. It is
not a partisan lean; it has to be earned race by race.
Precinct map
The 13 precincts on a Leaflet map with a view for every column that matters: turf tier, the 2022 Governor benchmark, the June and August returns, crossover, registration, independents, age, donors. Click a precinct for its dossier.
Scenarios
The win number and the scenario grid — opponent modifier against effort level — with sliders for turnout, the baseline and the modifiers, and the election-night precinct benchmark table: enter precincts as they report and the projection re-solves.
Field plan
Turf by tier, the two universes with their age and channel reach, the independent problem, the youngest precincts, 2022 turnout by party, and the top neighborhoods. Aggregates only — the voter-level lists live off this site.
Money
The in-district donor base by party and by precinct, and Megan's own report. Aggregates from public filings — no names, no addresses, no PII on this site.
Built 6 September 2026 · sources: SBE precinct files: 16 Jun 2026 primary, 25 Aug 2026 runoff (certified), 8 Nov 2022, 5 Nov 2024; Redistricter HD81 disaggregation (authoritative district totals); EDW voter file extract (registration, age, independents, neighborhoods); OEC + FEC itemized contributions (aggregates only; no donor PII in this file). Every figure on this page is
read from
hd81_hq_data.json at build time; the four tabs read the same file at
load, so the shell and the tools cannot disagree.Independent analysis by Dan Williams ·
danthedemocrat.com. This is not a campaign
website. Every number comes from public records: certified State Election Board precinct
files, the voter file, and Oklahoma Ethics and FEC filings.
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